But you can count on numberFire for help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that outputs the games to see how many times certain bet lines are hit. You can also track NBA odds betting spread percentages.
Where does our algorithm, our power rankings, and betting trends determine the value in tonight’s NBA odds?
Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets Moneyline (-126) – 1 star
Under 232.0 (110) – 2 stars
There’s not much in this game to love (or any of the games, frankly), so let’s get smart tonight.
The Nets fired coach Steve Nash after 2-5 start of the season. I’m not sure it will fix everything, but it is something. Last night, the Nets snatched a 116-109 victory over the Indiana Pacers, who had just beaten the Nets 126-116 two days earlier.
Chicago Bulls 3-4 and 1-2 on the way to start the year.
Ben Simmons He’s out for the Nets, and Bulls are expected to have Zach LaVine tonight (but not tomorrow).
Given these hits, my model likes an overall score of 229.5, which gives us some value out of a total of 232.0 points. The numberFire algorithm likes this game to stay below 58.0%.
Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat
Miami Heat Moneyline (-108) – 2 stars
Under 225.5 (-110) – 5 stars
The Heat initially started with a score of 2-5, and the visiting team – Golden State Warriors – It is 3-4. So it’s the same first game we played in terms of land and road records.
Our model likes the Heat to take 57.7% of the time in this match, and therefore likes their money streak (-108) but doesn’t recommend any action on the spread.
Preferred play is under (225.5). My model is sideways with more (232.2), so I personally wouldn’t go there, but I understand it.
Last year, the Warriors finished fifth overall (45.2%), but they are currently in first place (85.7%) this season. This is because Dubs have allowed their opponent to exceed their implied total in all seven games this season.
The Heat have exceeded their points total in just three out of seven games and have missed an average of 4.0 points.
Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (-158) – Brandon’s Choice
Oklahoma City Thunder -3.0 (-114) Brandon’s choice
It’s hard to get excited about this match between 1-6 Magic and 3-3 Oklahoma City Thunder.
It would be Oklahoma City without Josh Gedi; Orlando without Cole Anthony Jalen Suggs lists Doubtful.
Despite a poor record and a subpar coverage rate (40.0%), Magic played 3.3 points per game better than the spread suggested. Thunder has a coverage rate of 83.3% and outperformed the spread with an average of 9.6 points.
My model, who counts injuries and absences, likes the OKC team and thinks it should be preferred with a 6.0.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-168) – 5 Stars
Phoenix Suns -3.5 (-114) – 3 stars
The best match of the night to bet is 4-3 Minnesota Timberwolves at 5-1 Phoenix Suns.
The numberFire algorithm gives Suns a 77.9% chance of winning. Typical is actually there too, which might sound aggressive.
However, the Suns even with Deandre Ayton Net rating of +13.6 this season when removing low-leverage properties. This year’s related divisions of Timberwolves put their net rating at just +0.9.
Even the homogeneity of these samples suggests that the big difference is in favor of the Suns, who are 4-0 at home and have participated in four of their six games to start the season.