There are still three more full field events in the fall swing for the tour as El Camaleón in Mayakoba hosts the World Wide Technology Championship. It’s a pretty heavy field with six players priced over $10,000 at DraftKings, including Tony Finau, Colin Morikawa and Scotty Scheffler – plus Victor Hovland, who is looking to win this event for the third year in a row.
Driving accuracy was the statistic most closely associated with success at El Camaleón—only three more rounds bonus accuracy was more, according to my RickRunGood.com statistic modeling. Another unique feature of this course is the fact that it boasts three short 3 bows that play less than 150 yards. This is a rarity on the PGA Tour, and when you combine it with short to medium length 4s, you’ll see these golfers hitting a lot of pegs this week.
These are the players who have my interests – and those who certainly don’t – this week at Mayakoba 2022.
Aaron Wise ($10,200 for Kings | $11,100 from FanDuel)
I’ve been a believer in Wise for over a year, ever since he got back to his “broom racket” and improved his racket stats dramatically. These gains are visible in his results. With a sixth place finish in the CJ Cup, he now has three Top 15s in his past four starts and eight Top 25s in his last 14 starts. He’s been great at Mayakoba, finishing the T-15 and second on his previous two runs.
Brendon Todd ($9,000 | $10,100 from FanDuel)
Todd hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s appearing in the top 10 on a more regular basis. In four events this season, he has two Top 10 – both fueled by excellent playstyle. He’s one of the best running rackets of the rounds, and he takes flat-stick hits in 12 consecutive starts. If he can marry these two sides of his game, he’ll be in line for another great week.
Thomas Detry ($8,800 Kings | $10,000 FanDuel)
Another great finish last week for Dieter, who finished runner-up in Bermuda. This is his fourth 12th place finish over his past six matches and his seventh place in his last 12 events. While this field is definitely stronger than last week, it probably won’t be strong enough to justify the $1,700 price drop on DeTree just a few days ago. This is a solid buying point for the golfer who plays well around the world.
Will Gordon ($7,000 | $8,300 FanDuel)
Gordon sits in the middle of an excellent golf course, arguably the best of his young career. Finishing his T-35 last week in Bermuda extended his cutting streak to nine starts. He leads the ball well, gaining 6.27 strokes/from a tee over his last three measured events, according to golf database RickRunGood.com.
Kevin Yu ($6,900 for loot kings | $8,400 from FanDuel)
U posted a T-3 last week in Bermuda, which continues his impressive golf career this season. He’s proven to be one of the best ball strikers to have been on tour so far in this campaign, and he can survive in any field. He has a great collegiate resume (Arizona State), and now he’s making strides on the PGA Tour.
Scottie Scheffler ($11,400 for the Kings | $12,000 from FanDuel)
state. This is it. This is Scheffler’s key, and he knows it. He turned into a prototype of Scotty Cameron’s CJ Cup racket and didn’t work, losing 4.25 strokes on the court, according to golf database RickRunGood.com. The decline of the situation is due to AT&T Byron Nelson, with Scheffler losing in nine of 12 starts since that event. The rest of his game is totally dialed in, and it’s just a matter of time before he fixes flat.
Tom Hoge ($9,500 for royalty | $10,900 from FanDuel)
Hogg struggled this summer missing seven cut-offs in eight games heading into the FedEx Cup playoffs. He’s come out of this slump and been fantastic this season. It didn’t finish worse than the T-13 in any of its four starts. He took 31.2 hits on the field during those 16 innings, his fourth best mark on the field over the same span.
Harris English ($7,700 for Kings | $9,800 from FanDuel)
I’m not sure the English are completely healthy, but it looks like he’s getting his game back on track after the disastrous 2022 season. Based on his Mayakoba history, I’m willing to “be early” in English. He won this event in 2013 and placed fifth on each of his previous two trips.
Dean Burmester ($7,700 Draft Kings | $9,400 Vandel)
Regardless of round or field, the name Burmester appears near the top quite often. This run started with a T-10 at the Scottish Open and a T-11 at the Open. Besides these results, he has secured three more top five positions in his last six events.
JJ Spaun ($7,300 Draft Kings | $8,700 FanDuel)
El Camaleón has rewarded disproportionately accurate drivers over the years, and Spaun is one of the most accurate drivers on the Tours. He’s made six straight cuts, including three finishes in the top 25 during that run. In his six trips to Mayakoba, he has never missed the cut and has four places in 28th place, most notably the T-3 in 2018.
Billy Horschel ($10,000 from DraftKings | $11,200 FanDuel)
It’s a tough fade on Horschel, but it seems to be getting squeezed at the top of this pricing pad. The more expensive golfers (Scheffler, Hovland, Morikawa and Finau) obviously fall into a different class. The lowest-cost golfers (Montgomery, Hogg, Bauer, Todd) are playing great golf and holding winning predictions this week. It creates a tricky situation for Horschel who crossed $10,000 for only the second time in the last year.
Brian Harman ($8,900 Draft King | $10,200 FanDuel)
On paper, Harman should fit in well with El Camaleón because he is very accurate and a positive racket. Unfortunately, this event was not played out on paper, and Harman really struggled. He has made the trip to Mayakoba nine times and the T-26 was his best result.
Keith Mitchell ($8,300 from DraftKings | $10,300 from FanDuel)
Mitchell’s weapon is his driver – thanks to distance and not always accuracy. El Camaleon has given him bouts over the years, losing a total of 17.98 strokes on the field in five starts. His best result was last season (T-56). Sometimes courses just don’t fit the player’s eye, and that’s likely to be the case for Mayakoba’s Mitchell.
Chris Kirk ($7,200 | $8,600 FanDuel)
El Camaleon features green paspalum, a strain of grass generally found only in tropical and coastal areas. Although we don’t always have the hits earned/put numbers for these events outside of the US, we can still see golfers who have hit the surface. Unfortunately for Kirk, his name does not appear on that list. He has lost field strikes in four of his last five starts on the paspalum with the T-33 having been his best result in seven events going back to 2019.
Max McGreevy ($6,200 from Loot Kings | $7,200 from FanDuel)
McGreevy was a dynamite over the weekend in Bermuda, taking 7.23 strokes on the field — the best mark ever. At that price, it’s tempting to think he’s found something. We’ve seen this before from McGreevy who finished T-5 at Windham and T-12 at Barbasol, putting him 15th in his first 13 games. The problem is that he missed the cut in each of the other ten starts.