- Tropical depression ninth formed in the Caribbean Sea, and it will soon become a tropical storm.
- It could follow near Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba early next week, possibly as a hurricane.
- It could become a hurricane threat to Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
- After that, it could follow near the coast or inland later next week.
- Interests in those areas should have hurricane safety plans ready to go.
His last system is in addition to Hurricane Fiona in the western Atlantic and Tropical Storm Gaston in the mid-Atlantic.
We are still in the very early stage of tracking this latest system. There are aspects of the forecast in which we have more confidence, while others remain uncertain, which is typical of a tropical forecast far in time.
Here’s a look at everything we know now.
Tropical Depression Nine is located in the middle of the Caribbean Sea and moves from west to northwest.
I’m still battling wind shear, but I’m finally organized enough to take a tropical depression on a Friday morning.
Heavy rains are the main threat from this system at the moment in Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao. Floods and mudslides are likely in these areas.
Prediction path, density
The system is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
I will be called either Hermine or Ian depending on whether or any other system in the eastern Atlantic becomes a tropical storm first.
The National Hurricane Center predicts that a future tropical storm will turn into a hurricane in the northwest Caribbean late this weekend or early next week. It could then strike anywhere from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to near the Florida peninsula as a hurricane by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Reduced wind shear and abundant supplies of warm and deep waters in the Caribbean Sea are expected to strengthen the system in the coming days.
L and interaction with Cuba could be a hindrance to its development ahead of any possible approach to the eastern Gulf of Mexico or Florida early next week.
We previously mentioned that Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao are at risk of heavy rains right now.
In Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba I must watch closely the expectations of this regime.
Heavy rains may at least be a concern in these areas starting this weekend. Tropical storms or even hurricanes can also occur depending on the exact path and strength of this system.
What is the American threat?
Contrary to what we saw with Hurricanes Earl and Fiona, the wind direction forecast for this system makes it a significant threat to the US mainland next week.
The majority of computer prediction models crimp the system to a location somewhere from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to near Florida or even off the Atlantic coast of Florida in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. It can be as powerful as a hurricane because it tracks near these areas.
(more: What you should know about spaghetti patterns forecast)
The stalled front will make South Florida windy this weekend, T Hatt said, and batches of pre-order heavy rain could reach South Florida as soon as Monday.
Its not just a Florida or Gulf Coast story.
Then his system will either move inland somewhere over the southeastern United States, or it can track near or along parts of the East Coast later next week.
It’s still too early to know where that system will end up, but there could be wind, heavy rain, and other effects spreading to other parts of the east late next week.
Now, all interests near and along the Gulf Coast, including Florida, and in the eastern United States must monitor forecasts and ensure hurricane plans are in place, should they be needed.
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest information on this evolving situation.
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The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking news about weather, the environment, and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of the parent company, IBM.