Sunday Picks for Joe Mixon, Marcus Mariota, Aaron Rodgers

While sides and totals are still the norm when it comes to NFL betting, player props have become very popular for the casual and seasoned bettor.

Support markets are introduced for new players every season and finding an edge in one of these offers can be very profitable.

For the 2022 NFL season, while I’m known as an anytime support specialist with The Action Network, I’ve decided I can’t deny my love for all of my player support bets and will make my best bets each week. This can include player support markets such as receiving yards, lunge attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes, interceptions and much more.

Each week during the regular season and playoffs, I will present my favorite picks for the three NFL players on Friday. Within 2 weeks, I went 3-3 for +0.6 units. For reference, during the 2021 season (including post-season), my record for these props was 43-25 + 21.7 units in profit. Had I been blindly mistaken, I would have made a profit in 17 of 22 weeks.

As always, you can get all of these choices once you’re locked out by downloading the Action app.

Here we go for week 3!

NFL Week 3 player props

Although Jonathan Taylors and Derek Henrys of the world have got what they deserve just for being the best appearances in the NFL, Bengals RB Joe Mixon needs to start including at this level. One of the phases of the game in which he has been involved most since the start of last season is passing. That’s why I like him to get four or more hits against planes.

The Mixon has 10 hits through two games, seven in Week 1 and three in Week 2. The latter can be attributed to the Bengals’ attack being stagnant against Dallas and needing Mixon to be an edge rush blocker like Micah Parsons. Now, the Bengals are battling against a porous passing jet rush that has only three sacks a season.

Last year, the Jets allowed 103 receptions to run, which was 27 in the NFL. One of those games was against Cincinnati, when Mixon had four assists and scored a goal.

Mixon’s passing feats trend began last season, and was boosted during the playoffs when he’s had four or more assists in five of the Bengals’ last six games (including the Super Bowl). Being a kitchen sink game for Cincy, I would expect Mixon’s surprise count to be 80% or more, giving him plenty of opportunities to take advantage of this prop.

Marcus Mariota may not be the future quarterback for the Hawks, but he’s definitely trying to seize this starting opportunity. This is why I love OVER for his fast yards against Seattle in Week 3.

The Oregon producer was operating as if his career depended on him; He set up 72 yards on the Saints’ brave defense line in Week 1. He got back to the ground in Week 2 against the Rams by just 16 yards – although he still runs six times which is encouraging.

The Seahawks’ defense was damaged on the ground; They allow for 146 rushing yards per game, which is number 25 in the NFL. For example, the 49ers had three players with at least 30 yards in Week 2 versus Seattle. Cordarrelle Patterson may be the RB1 in the Falcons attack, but it’s safe to say Mariota does the same as the RB2.

That’s a reasonable number at 28.5 after hitting 32.5 in Week 2. If Mariota hits more than 30 yards, bettors may never see that streak below 30.5 for the rest of the season.

Six QBs have additional odds of throwing a interception in Week 2, including Marcus Mariota, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes.

While these three would certainly tempt me to bet on them in a typical week, I would go for a big game catch. I’m after the white whale. That’s right, I bet Aaron Rodgers (swallowed) to throw a interception against the pirates.

I’ve been hesitant to shoot Rodgers in this market because he’s one of the most keen QPS in the league. Over the past two seasons, he has thrown nine interceptions in total. This is a typical three-week stretch for guys like Matthew Stafford or Trevor Lawrence. However, here’s why I swing through those possibilities:

Rodgers’ contact with his receivers this season has been a hit or miss and he threw a pick in the first week against the Vikings. Some of his passes were thrown in Week 2, but the Bears High has been awful for a few seasons now – 28 IQs since 2019 – so bookies won’t find any diamonds in this match. This week though, he’s got a hacker and it’s not going to be that easy.

The Bucs are second in the NFL in forced interceptions by four, along with 35 picks over the past two seasons since the arrival of Tom Brady. The Bucs’ defensive strength lies in their pursuit of quarterbacks and poor decisions. This is why pirates are also first in the bags (10).

The last time Rodgers went to Tampa Bay in 2020, he threw two interceptions. When the Packers hosted the Bucs later that season in the playoffs, he threw another one. Given those odds, I’m willing to concede that the mainstream NFL MVP’s connection to its receivers remains shaky and the Bucs will be challenged as a result.

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