The NFL odds makers are anticipating a hotly contested game, with the Bucs favorites 1.5 points as of Friday. The similarities between these two offenses, and the limited nature that both have to operate, make this game a great one in the NFL player kit market.
We broke it down for you with our picks for Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay, and check out our Packers vs.
Beams vs. pirate picks prop
Click on each selection to go to the full analysis.
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Packages vs pirates week 3 props
Looking for Lenny
Part of what drew Tom Brady to Tampa Bay as a free agent has remained constant during his time there: a wealth of choices among the catcher’s corps. However, that group will look completely different on Sunday. Mike Evans was suspended, Chris Goodwin remained sidelined, Julio Jones was a DNP all week in practice, and Russell Gage was a limited participant.
With all due respect to Breshad Perriman, the best course of action for the Bucs, as a result of their depleted recipient corps, would be to revive Leonard Fournette’s excellent role as a passing pro from 2021.
The previous fourth overall pick was an absolute nail in last year’s pass game, the latest in a long line of backs to cash in on Brady’s love of engaging a tailgate. Fournette averaged 6.0 goals, 4.9 catches and 32.4 yards per game last year, benefiting from a target share of 14% and track participation just under 53%.
While Fournette has had a quiet start as a future this year, with only six goals, four catches and 19 yards, there is still plenty of reason to be optimistic. He’s running trails on 63.9% of Brady’s dropouts, up more than 10% from last season, and still has a target share of 10%. After a period of worrying about the apparent weight gain, Fortnite seemed to be dynamic with the ball early this year.
Despite his Tampa receiving team run-out, Fortnite’s assured confidence in the passing game, and the prospect of the quarterback having a major role as a passer catcher this week, his total receiving yards is only 25.5. That’s a total he went in 10 of 14 games last year.
Leonard Fortnite Prop: Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
no place to work
The dominant question during the holiday period was about the Packers attempt to replace the traded Davante Adams. While there were hopes pinned on a pair of starters, so far this season, Green Bay’s reliance on its backfield appears to be the answer.
Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon continue to serve as an impressive 1-2, NFC answer to Karim Hunt and Nick Chubb. Both had shining moments amid a near-even split — Jones has 246 yards on 26 touches playing 59.7%, Dillon has 158 yards on 34 touches playing 54.3% — but Sunday doesn’t look like Dillon’s day.
Tampa maintained a strong defensive front even amid some shifting. The Bucs set Dallas at 71 yards on 18 buggies, with the Cowboys finishing with -3.13 EPA/play on the floor. They followed that up by allowing 100 yards on a 20-cart haul to New Orleans—but 25% of that production came over two campaigns and the Saints still finished with -2.11 EPA/play in the running game.
A strong front that keeps the discipline gap very well is the wrong-footed Dillon who, despite having great size and sportsmanship, isn’t exactly one to make for himself. In what was largely an ineffective season as a runner, Dillon created just 1.8 yards after touching each carry. That’s a rough mark, more so for a 6-foot, 247-pound mill.
This is not the correct match for Dillon to produce on Earth, it is extremely difficult to see and it is so unbalanced that he is able to stack numbers by a larger volume.
AJ Dillon Prop: Less than 46.5 yards (115)
We’ve already touched on it above, but Brady is gearing up to get his experience back for the 2019 Patriots on Sunday, and he’ll battle his top receivers like Perriman, a disappointed and troubled Gage, and “we’ve got Julian Edelman at home” Scotty Miller.
Brady and Box’s poor reception corps would only lead to what would have been a crime shift in its first year without Bruce Arians’ approach to bombshells. After averaging 40.2 attempts per game during his first two seasons in Tampa, Brady has thrown only 61 passes in two games this year.
With his group of receivers weaker than ever this week, there’s no reason to expect Brady to top his season high with 34 attempts from last week.
Not with Evans, Goodwin and Jones sidelined, while Gage suffers an injury.
Not while Fortnite, and to a lesser extent the White Rashad, look very good on the ground.
And certainly not when Aaron Rodgers’ experience on the other side isn’t as mixed, depending on the upstarts and outcasts.
This might be a close match but neither Brady nor Rodgers have the ammunition to turn it into a penalty shootout. At +100, Under on Brady’s attempts are a great play.
Tom Brady prop: less than 34.5 attempts (+100)