DK Metcalf To Splash, DJ Moore To Crash

It’s now two weeks into the 2022 fantasy football season. It’s going to get tougher decisions from now on. Let’s take a look at WR start/sit Week 3 plays.

DK Metcalfe, Seattle Seahawks (v. ATL)

Within two weeks, Metcalf averaged 8.1 fantasy PPR points per game. It was a tough start to the season. Of course, the problem is not Metcalf. It is using it.

In Metcalfe’s stellar 2020 season, his average goal depth was 13.8 yards. He saw 1.9 deep ball goals per game. In 2022, the aDOT is 5.5 yards long, and has yet to see a single deep ball. So, why would I be optimistic about it in the third week? Two reasons.

First, there is the disagreement. The Hawks allow 29 points per game. They actually allowed five touchdowns and 253 passes per game.

Second, there’s Carol’s house. Yes, this is Carol’s house. The same person who never tells the truth is someone I actually listen to. Earlier this week, Carroll said they needed to “make sure the ball goes to DK in the court”. For all my criticism of Carol, he clearly recognizes that Metcalfe hasn’t seen a single deep target yet.

Well, what better place to throw it to Metcalf than facing the Falcons defense that has allowed the most deep ball to be completed this season? The Hawks’ opponents completed deep passes in a ridiculous clip by 69%. I think the Seahawks are going to open up the offense and I’d love Metcalf to make a deep landing this week. Never him.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs (at IND)

The Chiefs took a hard-fought victory over the Chargers last week. But no thanks to JoJo Smith Schuster.

The Chiefs’ WR1 saw only three targets, which he caught for 10 yards. It was a disastrous game from a fantasy perspective. Love that JuJu bounces back against the Colts.

The Colts struggled defensively during the first two games. They allowed 20 points for Texas and 24 points for Jaguars. The way the teams play the ball against the ponies is like dying by 1,000 cuts. Only 7.7% of pass attempts against ponies were on the field. Teams just massage their monitors at the bottom. This is where Smith Schuster shines.

He picked up six of eight goals for 79 yards in the first week. I think we’ll get something more similar this week. Start Smith Schuster, who came 24th in our WR fantasy weekly rankings, in what could be a sneaky shooting if the Colts bring back Michael Pittman.

DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers (vs. no)

“This is the year of DJ Moore.” Fantasia directors… every year. December’s Narrator: “It wasn’t the year for DJ Moore.” Here we go again with Moore in a low-performance offense.

Some might think Moore’s turnaround is coming after he found the end zone last week. Moore is not known for his end zone prowess. He’s already got one, yet he’s still averaging 10.7 ppg.

Moore’s target share of 23% is the lowest since his bullish year. It’s behind Robbie Anderson’s 25% target share.

This week, Moore gets a defense from Saints that only allows 201.5 passes per game. They only allowed one transient landing. Marshawn Lattimore was not stopped for his altercation with Mike Evans.

As if all of that wasn’t enough for Moore to fade away, the Saints’ High School weak point was the Profound Ball. Opponents have thrown deep against the Saints 23% of the time – the highest in the league. The Panthers do not use the Moore downfield, as indicated by its average target depth of 11.2.

If Moore doesn’t score, he needs volume. So far, the volume hasn’t been there – not like it was last season. For example using my fantasy squads, I sit Moore with Drake London. If you have a viable alternative, Moore should sit down, too.

Allen Robinson, Los Angeles Rams (at ARI)

After a disastrous Week 1, Allen Robinson bounced back in Week 2 to score a fantastic 15.3 points. That’s cool, and we’ll take that every week. Unfortunately, nothing about Robinson’s second week discouraged me. He scored a goal, which will happen from time to time given that he’s making a high attack. It’s also the only way he’ll be able to truly produce it.

Let’s get out of the way – the showdown is great. The Cardinals allowed 604 yards to pass and seven touchdown passes over two games. Sure, one of those was against Patrick Mahomes, but that’s still pretty poor.

Robinson’s problem is that he’s not just a major part of Ramez’s passing attack. He’s in the ballpark and runs the tracks with a 97% clip. The goals just aren’t there.

Even in the improved second week, Robinson still saw a target share of only 14%. He was only targeted once in two matches. His track run rate goals are only 9.5%. By comparison, DJ Moore, another WR site this week that is also struggling with volume, has goals of 21% per road run rate. Even this is low.

There doesn’t seem to be any deliberate effort to get the ball to Robinson. This cross attack he is Cooper Cup. And when he’s not Kupp, it’s Tyler Higbee, who owns 26.3% of the target stake, ahead of Robinson. Fantasy directors shouldn’t be chasing last week’s points. Alternatively, sit ARob if you can.

Jason Katz is a Pro Football Network Fantasy Analyst. you can follow it Twitter: @jasonkatz13 Find more of his work over here.

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